International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research (ISSN 2347-4289)

IJTEEE >> Volume 3 - Issue 9, September 2015 Edition

International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research  
International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research

Website: http://www.ijteee.org

ISSN 2347-4289

Why A Green-Based Generation Expansion Plan For Kenya? A Comparative Analysis

[Full Text]



Patrobers Simiyu



Keywords : generation expansion planning; capacity; reserve margins, carbon credits, system’s cost, net present value.



ABSTRACT: The main concern in the global generation sector was the huge CO2 emissions from the conventional power generation. In Kenya, the sector prepares 20 year rolling least cost power development plan (LCPDP) for expanding the power system to meet the current and future power demands. The 2011-2031 LCPDP generation plan proposed a system expansion that would result in a 33% fossil fuel power generation posing a huge CO2 emission dilemma. Consequently, a green least-cost generation expansion plan (GLCGEP) was derived from the Kenya’s numerous renewable energy resources. However, the question of whether or not the plan was preferable over the LCPDP and the way forward for the Kenya’s generation sector remained unanswered. This study sought the answer to this question through a comparative study of the two generation expansion plans. The findings of the study established that the GLCGEP would have a relatively modest reserve margin averaged at 25% and more than US$2.16 billion net revenues by the end of the 2011-31 planning period. Nothwitstanding, the envisaged energy system showed ample social-economic benefits for green growth. Therefore the research recommended future studies on modelling grid reliability and stability with high penetration of variable renewable energy sources.



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