International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research (ISSN 2347-4289)

IJTEEE >> Volume 3 - Issue 9, September 2015 Edition

International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research  
International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research

Website: http://www.ijteee.org

ISSN 2347-4289

Green-Based Generation Expansion Planning For Kenya Using Wien Automatic Software Package (WASP) IV Model.

[Full Text]



Patrobers Simiyu



Keywords : Generation Expansion Planning; Renewable energy; WASP IV; Optimal Solution; Senstivity Analysis; CO2 emissions; net present value



ABSTRACT: In 21st Century, there is growing interests in the global power generation sector to integrate more renewable energy (RE) resources in least-cost generation expansion planning for security of supply and sustainable development. However, little has been done in Kenya yet she was endowed with enormous unexploited RE resources. For this reason, the study derived an optimal green least-cost generation expansion plan (OGLCGEP) taking 2010 as the base year to 2031 using the WASP IV model. The study findings showed that the OGLCGEP had a capacity of 1382MW at a peak demand of 1227MW in the base year. However, annual RE capacity additions over the planning horizon will raise the capacities to 19828MW at a peak demand of 16905MW in the reference demand forecast scenario (RDFS) and 26968MW at a peak demand of 22985MW in the higher demand forecast scenario (HDFS). Consequently a 71% to 78% green generation would be realized with 1.94 -3.02 % LOLP. Additionally, the envisaged RE system would supply 7721GWh to 105766 GWh in the RDFS and 143830GWh in the HDFS with a cumulative total of 18 to 23.6Mt CO2 emissions. Moreover, the energy system’s cost would be US$ 14.62 billion in the RDFS; US$ 5.34 billion higher in the HDFS by 2031. Subsequently, the system’s net present value would be US$ +2.16 billion in the RDFS; US$ +4.92 billion higher in the HDFS besides potential carbon credits. Thus, the OGLCGEP would be a feasible option and the future for high RE grid integration for Kenya. Therefore, the research recommends future studies to focus on modeling of the Kenya national-grid reliability and stability with high penetration of variable renewable energy sources.



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