IJTEEE
International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research (ISSN 2347-4289)
PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS



IJTEEE >> Volume 2 - Issue 4, April 2014 Edition



International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research  
International Journal of Technology Enhancements and Emerging Engineering Research

Website: http://www.ijteee.org

ISSN 2347-4289



Intelligent System For Predicting Agricultural Drought For Maize Crop

[Full Text]

 

AUTHOR(S)

Solomon Mwanjele Mwagha, Peter W. Waiganjo, Christopher A. Moturi, E. Muthoni Masinde

 

KEYWORDS

Keywords : Agricultural drought, intelligent system, Knowledge discovery, nearest neighbor classification, Drought prediction

 

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: There has been little information in regard to agricultural drought prediction. This paper aimed at coming up with an efficient and intelligent agricultural drought prediction system. By using a case study approach and knowledge discovery data mining process this study was preceded by drought literature review, followed by analysis of daily 1978-2008 meteorological and annual 1976-2006 maize produce data both from Voi Taita-Taveta (Coast Province in Kenya). The design and implementation of an agricultural drought prediction system, was made possible by computer science programming for meteorological data preprocessing, classification algorithms for training and testing as well as prediction and post processing of predictions to various agricultural drought aspects. The study was evaluated by comparison of predicted with actual 2009 data as well as the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) 2009 records. The evaluation of this study results indicated consistency with the KMD 2009 outlook. The results showed that the application of classification algorithms on past meteorological data can lead to accurate predictions of future agricultural drought. The recommendation is that future work can be based on designing a solution for multiple regions with multiple crops.

 

REFERENCES

[1]. Kenya Meteorological Department, Agrometeorological bulletin, Issue No. 27/2009.

[2]. Gong, Z. et al, 2010. Risk Prediction of Agricultural Drought in China. 2010 Seventh International Confe-rence on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery (FSKD 2010).

[3]. Kozyra, J. et al 2009. Institute Of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation National Research Institute, Interna-tional Symposium, Climate change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture, Viena, June, 22-23 2009.

[4]. Lin Zhu, Jing M. Chen, Qiming Qin, Mei Huang, Lianxi Wang, Jianping Li, Bao Cao: Assimilating Remote Sensing based Soil Moisture in an Ecosystem Model (BEPS) for Agricultural Drought Assessment. IGARSS (5) 2008: 437-440

[5]. Ladislaus B. et al, 2010. Indigenous knowledge in seasonal rainfall prediction in Tanzania: A case of the South-western Highland of Tanzania, Journal of Geography and Regional Planning Vol. 3(4), pp. 66-72, April 2010.

[6]. Ashok, M. et al, 2006. Linking Seasonal Climate Forecasts with Crop Simulation to Optimize Maize Management, CCSP Workshop: Climate Science in Support of Decision Making, 14-16 November 2005 Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia 14-16 November 2005

[7]. Dastorani, M. et al (2010). Application of ANN and ANFIS Models on Dryland Precipitation Prediction (Case Study: Yazd in Central Iran). Journal of Applied Sciences, 10: 2387-2394.

[8]. Niu Shulian; Susaki Junichi, 2006. Detection of Agricultural Drought in Paddy Fields Using NDVI from MODIS Data. A Case Study in Burirum Province, Thailand.

[9]. Patrick O. Alila and Rosemary Atieno, 2006. Agricultural Policy in Kenya: Issues and Processes, A paper for the Future Agricultures Consortium workshop, Institute of Development Studies, 20-22 March 2006.

[10]. Tsegaye T. & Brian W. 2007. The Vegetation Outlook (VegOut): A New Tool for Providing Outlooks of General Vegetation Conditions Using Data Mining Techniques. ICDM Workshops 2007: 667-672

[11]. Z. (Bob) Su, Y. Chen, M. Menenti, J. Sobrino, Z.-L. Li, W. Verhoef, L. Wang, Y. Ma, L. Wan, Y. He, Q.H. Liu, C. Li, J. WEN, R. van der Velde, M. van Helvoirt, W. Lin1, X. Shan, 2007. Drought Monitoring and Prediction over China, In: Proceedings of the 2008 Dragon symposium, Dragon programme, final results, 2004-2007, Beijing, China 21-25 April 2008.

[12]. Peter Reutemann, (2007). WEKA KnowledgeFlow Tutorial for Version 3-5-7, University of Waikato 2007


Online References
[1]. Apollo Bwonya Orodho, 2002. Department of Range Management, Faculty of Agriculture and Animal Production, University of Nairobi, Kenya. http://www.fao.org/ag/AGP/AGPC/doc/counprof/Kenya.htm#1, accessed on 14th February 2011

[2]. Catholic Relief Services, 2011. http://crs.org/kenya/ongoing-hunger-crisis, accessed 14th February 2011

[3]. Kenya Seed Company, 2010. http://www.kenyaseed.com/maize.html, accessed on 14th February 2011.

[4]. Taita Taveta District profile, 2010. www.aridland.go.ke/semi_profiles/taita_taveta_profile.pdf, accessed on 25th January 2011, 25th January 2011